Decipher Index, created by BCW and Limbik, uses cognitive AI to evaluate and predict the impact of various themes with broad social, political,
and organizational implications.
2024 is set to be a year filled with disruptive forces. From elections in more than 40 counties, to the Paris Olympics and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, efforts to influence people will leverage various global and cultural issues. This inherently creates risk for organizations and brands. By understanding which themes are likely to energize online users, companies can mitigate potential reputational crises and build organizations resilience.
Regional themes are ranked by PFI (Potential For Impact) as determined by our cognitive AI, which combines Virality and Believability to predict which themes are most likely to resonate with the adult population in each of five regions globally. Our PFI model sources artifacts (social posts, news stories, etc.) related to each theme from more than 1.5 million global sources to predict whether people in the region are likely to find the themes believable or trustworthy (Believability) and how likely themes are to energize online users (Virality).
Last Update:
May 15, 2024
BCW Decipher powered by Limbik can be deployed to quantify information risk in more than 100 countries.
Immigration and Migration tops this week’s rankings due to multiple factors, with U.S. President Biden’s administration saying Mexico has increased their assistance on the border in an attempt to slow migration. Mexico is stopping almost three times as many migrants now compared to before. The Panamanian President-elect Mulino recently vowed to stop migrants headed to the U.S. via the Darien Gap, a significant corridor for illegal aliens making their way north. Deadly floods in southern Brazil have also sparked concern among national and regional leaders of potential climate migration due to rising river levels.
Some notably higher movers this week include Business and China as a result of Latin American countries increasingly open to cooperation with China in the new-energy sector, notably solar, wind, hydropower, electric vehicles, and mining for strategic materials. There has been a higher number of smaller Chinese investment and infrastructure projects which indicates a move away from large infrastructure projects like those seen under the Belt and Road Initiative. Business and China ties in with Global Economy, another high mover, as the Biden administration cites Chinese EVs made in Mexico as a top trade concern. Moreover, Argentina cut interest rates again as yearly inflation peaks to just under 300%. Business in Russia is another high mover as a result of Russia discovering a large number of oil and gas reserves in the British Antarctic territory; most of the territory is subject to competing claims from Argentina and Chile which will likely escalate tensions between all of the countries if the evidence Russia presents is proven true and complicate business dealings in Russia for those countries. Relatedly, Russia and Brazil also increased bilateral trade in April, reaching $1.5 billion.